The Off-Broadway review

Broadway bus services after 4 October

When the Castlereagh/Pitt Streets tram loop was inexplicably torn up along with the tram rails in George and Elizabeth Street, bus services from City Road took over the route, operating in reverse direction. The Pitt Street Mall required the city-bound route to be relocated: George Street was less congested than Elizabeth Street and there was more space for buses to lay over at Circular Quay.

From 4 October 2015 Parramatta Road and City Road bus services will be forcibly terminated at Hay Street or Hunter Street. Buses forcibly terminated at Hunter Street will now have to pass through the mother-of-all pinch points in Elizabeth Street northbound. For generations traffic planners had meticulously avoided this.

Regardless of whether buses are forcibly terminated at Hay or Hunter Street every bus from Broadway must inexorably:

• pass through the intersection of Pitt Street and Eddy Avenue, inbound and outbound;
• cross four tram-rails, inbound and outbound;
• cross their out-bound route three times when on the in-bound route and vise versa;
• set out on the return journey immediately after turning round.

October 4, 2015 is the last time in the life of Sydney that a Parramatta Road or City Road bus will run on schedule.

The Dénouement

Shortly before he became a total recluse Chris Lock told the Randwick "businessmen's" breakfast: "The light rail of itself  will take 220 buses out of the CBD".

He was reiterating the phrase that had appeared in the brochure Sydney's light rail future. The claim was chanted again in the EIS and was quoted in countless news stories in the Murdoch and Fairfax press and in radio and TV bulletins.

The Secretary who wrote the Final Secretary's Report  for the Department of Planning and Environment also stated baldly "The proposal would result in 220 fewer peak hour buses into the Sydney CBD".

All attempts to find out what was meant by "take 220 buses out of the CBD" including written requests from PUSH shortly after the Community Forum were thwarted by TfNSW. Chillingly, the consultants SAMSA Consulting commissioned by the Assessors at the Department of Planning & Environment to make an independant Peer Review of Traffic and Transport Assessment were not given any information as to what was meant.

The only bus services taken out of the CBD north of Market Street which is where congestion occurs by the light rail of itself  are the Flinders Street bus services through Kingsford and Randwick, not including the Metro routes. These can be tallied from the time tables and are a lot less than 220 in the peak hour.

SAMSA Consulting took the figures seriously and in Section 3.2.4 queried the claims about the capacity of the system. The derisive response of TfNSW was incomprehensible but they concluded by asserting: "Detailed demand and operational modelling has confirmed that the capacity of the CSELR is appropriate". ALSTOM later demanded that the vehicles be increased in length from 45 metres to 67 metres in order to meet day-one demand.

On 17 July 2015 TfNSW issued a series of media releases the finally revealed the modelling used to produce the outrageous claims they had been chanting for 3 years. The media releases redefined the meaning of CBD: "The core of the CBD is bounded by Bridge Street to the north, Elizabeth Street to the east, Liverpool Street to the south and Clarence Street to the west".

Using this definition of "CBD" buses looping along Bridge Street are "removed from the CBD". Broadway bus services that are forcibly terminated at Campbell Street are "removed from the CBD" while those that are forcibly terminated at Hunter Street are not. The modelling used by TfNSW can remove an arbitrary number of "buses from the CBD" by simply declaring where bus routes will be terminated.

The modelling used to justify and promote the tram project was so infantile, so deceptive, so presumptuous and so destructive to public transport south of the Harbour as to be beyond belief.

We know that SAMSA Consulting and apparently the anonymous Assessors at the Department of Planning and Infrastructure were not informed as to the modelling being used by TfNSW but the question remains as to whether the senior public servants put in control of the Department by Pru Goward were as incompetent and corrupted as the public servants in control of TfNSW.

The question arises: why Campbell Street?

Don't you just hate it when dénouements give rise to more questions than they answer.

Campbell Street will be the most southerly east to west crossing of the "Berlin Wall" when Rawson Place is closed to vehicular traffic. It leads inexorably to Liverpool Street but movements can take place while trams are crossing Liverpool Street so it will be heavily used for east-west traffic. Druitt Street and Market Street are the only other places where Eastern Suburbs' traffic can cross into the western CBD.

Pitt Street is two-way south of Goulburn Street and TfNSW concedes that it will remain two-way. The reason it must be two-way is dictated by the width of Goulburn Street west of George Street - just two lanes each way. There is no lane for vehicles to turn into George Street. There is no right-hand turn into Elizabeth Street either.

Right-hand turns in Goulburn Street

To reach the southern arterial roads, Elizabeth Street and Botany Road, vehicles must turn into Pitt or Castlereagh Streets and percolate east along Campbell or Hay Street to Elizabeth Street. These roads will carry heavy traffic loadings if the traditional arterial road Rawson Place is closed.

Intersection of Hay and Pitt Streets

In order to physically turn around bus drivers terminated "nearside" must turn across this traffic from a two lane road into a two-lane Campbell Street eastbound and make a further right-hand into Castlereagh Street. Bus drivers terminated at Hunter Street are no much better off, having to turn into Hay Street from Pitt Street. The question remains: Why?

The pedestrianisation of George Street makes the section of Park Street eastbound between Pitt and Castlereagh Streets a bus-only road. The only way a vehicle can reach here is from Pitt Street. This is purely a rat run for motorists trying to avoid crippling congestion in Eddy Avenue and Elizabeth Street south of Park Street. Private vehicles would presumably be proscribed from turning here and forced to join the queue of vehicles dog-legging from Bathust Street to William Street.

Park Street from Pitt to Castlereagh Streets

Buses looping here would not disrupt east-bound buses and would use a right-hand turn into Castlereagh Street used by Metro buses.

Allowing buses forcibly terminated at Hunter Street to turn into Eddy Avenue would give passengers a stop adjacent to Central Electric and solve the problem of turning into Hay Street.

So why is Baird wilfully and unnecessarily inflicting so much inconvenience and damage to the bus commuters of the inner west?

There is only one explanation. Baird's ideological imperative is to destroy the efficacy of the Public Transport system so as to force passengers onto a privately-operated tram consortium.

This was discussed in a post Tripping the Light Rail fantastic 1 March 2014. To get from say Sydney University or anywhere in the inner west to say Dover Heights or anywhere along New South Head Road passengers are expected to catch a bus to Belmore Park, a cattle car to Town Hall, a Walsh Bay bus or an Eastern Suburbs train to Edgecliff Station then transfer to another bus service - an expensive four separate trips.

Media release 17 July 2015

Physically turning round buses not destined to pass through the mother-of-all pinch points in Elizabeth Street at Park Street would take the privately-owned cattle cars out of the equation. Oh no!

Go back from whence you came

SBS, please teach invaders correct English

Rawson Place has been the main arterial between Sydney docks at Darling Harbour and the southern arterial roads from the earliest days of the colony. A post Last Exit from Barangaroo (expurgated version) 17 October 2013 discussed the dire consequences of its closure to vehicular traffic. When the Hungry Mile had been the chief docks for NSW the connection between Sussex Street and George Street at Hay Street was the main exit from the docks. When Hay Street became one-way to install tram rails traffic from Sussex Street continued further south and could reach Rawson Place from Ultimo Road

Ultimo Road disconnection

The EIS maintained the connection of Ultimo Road and George Street south-bound although this was of dubious benefit with the closure of Rawson Place. When the project was in its final throes Parsons Brinckerhoff announced with yet another deliberately deceptive indicative-only figure that there would be no crossing of the tram tracks here - Goulburn Street would be the most southerly point at which traffic from Darling Harbour, Barangaroo and western CBD could access the southern arterial roads. Barangaroo and South Sydney around Green Park are slated to be the major areas for growth of residences and office space in central Sydney so the problems for bus drivers forced to physically turn around by looping into Campbell Street are going to get worse for the rest of the life of the city.

Parsons Brinckerhoff have decreed that the two lanes of traffic are now to be sent north to Bathurst Street before they can cross the tram tracks. The vehicles that travelled south along Sussex Street have been returned from whence they came - Baird has turned back the vehicles! They could have turned into Bathurst Street from Sussex Street and saved themselves a futile trip south.

Sussex into Bathurst Streets

Vehicles turning right from George Street into Bathurst Street require a separate phase to the phases for through traffic and the trams. George Street north of Liverpool Street is just a rat run for traffic wanting to avoid the paralytic congestion at the eastern end of Eddy Avenue.

Druitt? Screw it!

Pedestrianised zone George/Druitt Streets, 8:52 am

Pedestrians crossing George Street 5:11 pm

When the project was announced Sydney City Council immediately issued computer-generated artists impressions of trams at the George Street/Druitt Street intersection - they had been forewarned. The simulations showed Druitt Street pedestrianised. These were later withdrawn and we don't know who produced them, TfNSW or SCC.

The 13 December 2012 brochure shrieked: "Most people arrive in the CBD via public transport. This means we can see 370 buses moving along George Street outside Town Hall in the morning's busiest hour - creating congestion". The horror, the horror! In fact we can see any day we look that none of the buses passing through George Street in front of the Town Hall suffer any delays in passing through the intersections. The buses are from a very large number of routes and only buses from Park Street have to wait for a second phase to pass through the intersection at any time of the day.

The phases of the George/Driutt intersection

Phase 1

This is the only phase that fails to clear buses in a single phase. The buses are mainly Metro buses with some from William Street. Congestion in Druitt Street, particularly where buses and other vehicles turn right into Clarence Street, causes traffic to bank up in Park Street - during some phases at the Pitt Street intersection hardly any vehicles make it across Pitt Street during a phase in the morning peak. Vehicles have to give way to merging buses so buses can move along the left-turn lane and merge into the queued vehicles, getting closer to the head of the queue.

TfNSW asserts that the trams will perform the same function as metrobus services from Coogee and Maroubra Junction but this is another lie. The purpose of the metrobus services was to avoid the need for layovers and terminuses in the CBD giving fast access to the centre of the CBD. The trams are the antithesis of the Metro bus services.

Metrobus goes to the head of the queue in Park Street

Phase 2

Phase 2 only takes place if a bus has passed over the metal-sensing loop in either or both bus-only right-turn lanes.  If not, the northbound and southbound traffic movements in George Street begin immediately after the Park Street phases. This phase is timed according to demand and in general lasts as long as there are buses passing over the loops. The buses turning into Druitt Street are mainly headed for Victoria Road after physically turning around at Circular Quay.

Phase 3

Phase 3 feeds buses and general traffic into Clarence Street via Druitt Street as well as carrying buses heading north to physically turn around at Circular Quay. Northbound buses use the second lane from the kerb which is marked left-turn-buses-excepted, or they can use the third general-traffic lane which does not carry many private vehicles apart from taxis.

Private vehicles do not seriously impede the movement of buses at any time of the day except for congestion in Druitt Street where vehicles turn right into Clarence Street. Two of the five phases feed traffic from George Street into Clarence Street.

Phase 4

Pedestrians have learned that this phase does not give enough time to cross between the Woolworths corner and the Queen Victoria Building using the marked crossings so they cross diagonally as you can see in the photos above above - a yellow Hillsbus leads the queue waiting for the phase to end. Buses and other vehicles from the car park under York Street and further north turn from York Street into Druit Street westbound during this phase. The timing does vary slightly during the day but is a bit more than 36 seconds.

Phase 5

Phase 5 is the other phase that carries buses and other traffic from George Street into Clarence Street and southbound from York Street into George Street. The timing would be based on the number of buses queued from York Street but is short and pretty constant through the day - 20 seconds in the morning peak and around 17 seconds for the rest of the day.

Pedestrianisation of George Street

Pedestrianisation of this crucial section of George Street displaces traffic that moves into Clarence Street and northbound past Park Street in parallel with bus movements into Pitt Street. Traffic that currently causes minimal disruption to bus movements now has to cross the dual tram tracks twice. Once at Eddy Avenue, which sets up trams to be run down at the Rawson Place stop, and then after vehicles join the traffic queued in Park Street to cross into Druitt Street. This traffic movement can not be blocked as it crosses Eddy avenue in parallel with every bus from Parramatta Road and City Road and it determines the maximum frequency with which trams can be dispatched from Circular Quay.

The sixth phase 

Buses queue to make a U-turn into Clarence Street, Monday 8:17 am

Currently buses heading north to the bus stop at QVB and then to physically turn round at Circular Quay and the small number of vehicles with expensive parking spaces along George Street move in parallel with traffic turning into Druitt Street in phase 3. Currently every phase of the traffic lights delivers buses and other traffic into Druitt Street westbound. Trams with the exclusive right to travel along George Street shut down every traffic movement apart from pedestrians crossing Park Street in parallel with the trams and buses and other vehicles turning right into Druitt Street from York Street: they require their own additional phase.

York into Druitt Street, Sunday 5:15 pm
Buses making a U-turn muscle into the general vehicle lane in York Street

"Proposed bus network" Dec 2012

The trams block buses sent south past Wynyard park along York Street from reaching the Lee Street layover forcing them to make a U-turn across the single eastbound lane of Druitt Street and back across this lane into Clarence Street. Three buses from Victoria Road held up at the Druitt Street pedestrian crossing would block this U-turn so this phase can not cut in randomly into the signals phasing at George Street to give 67-metre-long trams priority when inching between the Town Hall and QVB tram stops.

The front of the 67-metre trams will be only half a tram length from the Park Street pedestrian crossing in front of Town Hall leaving little time for the lights to change if a driver were to signal he was moving off - I have no idea how priority signalling would be implemented. When the tram is waiting at the crossing for the lights to change the rear carriage of the tram will not have left the Town Hall stop!

Town Hall stop falls just short of actually being in front of Town Hall

There can be no bus stops in the eastbound lane of Druitt Street so Victoria Road buses sent on to terminate God knows where in the Eastern Suburbs (i.e. Edgecliff station) will be crammed when they reach the Park Street intersection. On the other hand, trams will be running on empty to Circular Quay. So we have established that trams will not have priority at the Park/Druitt Streets intersection, right? So the phasing of the lights adds to the cumulative delays that determine whether a tram that gets a clear run at intersections crashes into a tram that misses every light, at the Rawson Place stop or indeed the Chalmers Street stop. This determines the frequency with which the trams can safely be dispatched from the Circular Quay terminus and the maximum capacity that the system can ever achieve.

I have observed the operation of the signalling at the Druitt/George Streets intersection on different days of the week from Monday to Sunday and at times from 7am to after 7pm. Effectively it was the U-turn movement from Druitt Street into Clarence Street that was responsible for congestion that at times banked up to George Street. The Park Street into Druitt Street phase that follows was blocked causing buses on occasions to block northbound movements in George Street and causing vehicles to come to a virtual halt in Park Street in the am peak. The trams make it impossible to ever relieve this congestion - it gets progressively worse for the rest of the life of the City. Baird is not only creating intractable congestion in Elizabeth Street he is creating intractable congestion in Druitt Street.

The mega phase

All the traffic that currently passes through the intersection in five phases will be consolidated into a single phase. This mega phase is basically the same as phase 1 with a couple of exceptions:

• Victoria Road buses do not turn into George Street but cross the tram tracks on their way to God knows where;
• Buses and other vehicles do not turn into George Street southbound;
• Pedestrians are forced to cross the tram tracks in a separate phase to crossing Park Street.

Motorists are not bicyclists. They are not treating the CBD as an adventure park or trying to save the planet by inflicting as much damage as possible on anyone who has qualified for a driver's licence or is productively employed. All the vehicles currently passing through the intersection have a reason to be there and that reason will not go away. Unfortunately the phase 1 was the only phase in the morning peak to become congested to the point where almost no vehicle movement was occurring. This is understandable as vehicles must move into Druitt Street in two lanes only. Every vehicle currently using the intersection will be forced to join the two-lane queue and every vehicle will pass through the Druitt Street/Clarence Street intersection.

 
Bus stop Druitt between Clarence and Kent

The lights at the George/Park Street intersection are demand based - using data from the metal-sensing loops - so the timing reflects the minimum time needed to clear the traffic passing through the intersection. Pedestrian movements across the tram tracks take place in parallel with vehicle movements so one can subtract 36 seconds from the time required to clear the intersection.

TfNSW has not disclosed how many Harbour Bridge services will be sent south past Wynyard park or how many Victoria Road bus services will be sent north to terminate at Wynyard park so no estimate can be made of how long phase 6 would last. TfNSW can manipulate the figures to satisfy itself that congestion would be manageable in 2021 - effectively transferring congestion to Wynyard, whatever the consequences. All Victoria Road bus services must pass through the Druitt/Clarence Streets intersection inbound and outbound so TfNSW is just manipulating the figures. Since a 36-second phase comprehensively clogs Druitt Street between York and Clarence Streets we can see this as an upper limit.

When there are no buses waiting to transfer from York Street to George Street phase 5 is omitted reducing the overall time of the traffic light cycle and when northbound lanes were blocked by a bus the cycle was extended confirming that the lights are controlled by signals from the loops in the road. Victoria Road buses have privileged entry to Druitt Street from the bus-only right turn. There are five lanes feeding traffic into Druitt Street during four phases. During the morning from 7-9 am and in the evening from 4-7 pm these phases add up to between 1 minute:12.5 seconds and 1 minute:19 seconds. It is inconceivable that it would take less time when all this traffic is forced into two lanes in Park Street.

This does not take into account the extra bus services that TfNSW will be forcing into the Druitt/Clarence intersection. New South Head Road bus services will be prevented from turning into Elizabeth Street and forced to physically turn round, God knows how, somewhere in Walsh Bay. All bus services to Barangaroo and the Hungry Mile will circle Wynyard park or do a U-turn in Druitt Street - there must always be separate services to these destinations. As with Victoria Road bus services TfNSW given itself the ability to manipulate the figures.

Frequency of tram services

We must add the maximum delay for the trams at the Park/Druitt Streets intersection to the delays expected at Bathurst, Liverpool and Goulburn Streets. The placement of the stops ensures that all these delays are cumulative. The cumulative delays at these intersections are a minimum of 4 minutes:49 seconds. This does not take into account any extra delays caused by vehicles failing to clear the tracks because of congestion in Druitt Street.

Then we have to add in delays at the Market Street, King Street and Hunter Street intersections which are more difficult to estimate.

Ms Berejiklian has lied about the frequency that tram services can ever achieve for more than two years now. Her latest claims are announced in her ridiculous media release (23 November 2014). Her public servants are now quoting her: "Gladys Berejiklian announced light rail would have 50% more capacity than the 9,000 passengers per hour previously announced". They do not want to be associated with her.

The latest indicative figure for the Rawson Place stop from Parsons Brinckerhoff appears to have been deliberately designed to conceal the pincer movement of death. The elimination of a crossing of the tram tracks at Ultimo Road transfers more traffic to Bathurst Street and to the single lane of George Street southbound. This will ensure that trams will be approaching the Rawson Place stop at their maximum speed.

Using existing traffic flows through intersections the frequencies with which trams can be dispatched from Circular Quay claimed by TfNSW cannot be achieved from day one. The claims about the frequencies of the trams that could be achieved in 2031 are delusional.

TfNSW has never revealed the assumptions it made in making calculations of Level of Service at intersections and has no intention of allowing an independent assessment to be made. The Business Case Summary confirmed that some of the assumptions are bizarre: "The light rail is also forecast to attract a significant number of car users (17 per cent of passengers)".
"The majority of the economic benefits ($2.2 billion, or 57%) result from public transport benefits related to faster, more comfortable, more reliable journeys".

In my submission to the EIS I pleaded with Planning and Environment to ascertain the maximum number of cars that could conceivably switch from driving from the catchment areas to park in very expensive off-street parking adjacent to George Street by doing a simple origin/destination survey - to no avail. The consequences of not doing such a survey are so catastrophic it was not much to ask.

Slaughter of the innocents

Martin Place tribute

The media reported that one of the officers that stormed the Lindt cafe had suffered shotgun pellets to the face. It turned out that his cheek had been grazed by a bullet - friendly fire. Only his cheek could have been grazed he was wearing Kevlar from head to toe and goggles. The people in the cafe had no protection - it was like shooting goldfish in a barrel.

The event in Martin Place was irrational and could not have been foreseen, although it could have turned out differently. Sydney faces far greater tragedies in Rawson Place. These catastrophes are predictable and would be inevitable if Ms Berejiklian were to force Connecting Sydney into an "availablity PPP" that required the consortium to maintain tram frequencies in George Street based on indisputably erroneous calculations, regardless of the consequences.

If the contract agreed to pay the consortium an assured amount if it did maintain these schedules, regardless of the patronage - which appears to be how these contracts work - then, not only would public transport in the CBD be crippled physically by the trams, public transport throughout the State would be crippled financially for the foreseeable future.

Only a Royal Commission into "availability PPPs" can uncover what is going on in these negotiations. A tragedy in Rawson Place is both predictable and avoidable. If Baird is sent packing on 28 March 2015 it will never occur.

Just passing through

Bus routes along Oxford Street have no opportunity to transfer passengers to the rail network between Bondi Junction and Circular Quay, but bus routes along South Head Road can transfer passengers to rail at Edgecliff and Kings Cross Stations. Passengers that stay on the bus after Kings Cross really want to reach destinations in the CBD north of Park Street including Circular Quay.

In the past, people would have stayed on the buses because of the difficulties in transferring to the trains but the Oyster (aka Opal) Card changes all that. In the past there was no way of dissuading passengers from staying on the buses until Elizabeth Street and walking to Town Hall Station (the most crowded station on the loop) to catch a train. The Eastern Suburbs line is the only platform not operating at or over capacity during the AM and PM peaks. The Oyster Card changes that too. The Oyster card can impose penalties on passengers who transfer from William Street buses to the tube train services but not to the Harbour Bridge trains at Town Hall Station. It can also give incentives to passengers who transfer from the Eastern Suburbs Line to other train services at Central or Redfern rather than Town Hall. The Oyster Card is truly the solution to the Public Transport congestion in the CBD.

The last stop in William Street, between Crown & Riley Streets

The last bus stop in William Street is a long way from Elizabeth Street (over the horizon in the photo) to give drivers a fighting chance to get across to the right-hand turn lanes at College and Elizabeth Streets. Buses head to Circular Quay, and to Chatswood via the Cahill Expressway during the peak periods because this is where passengers want to go. The next stop is the set-down-only stop in Elizabeth Street that traps drivers in the bus priority lane.

When the Oyster Card is operational for buses it will be possible to terminate more bus services along South Head Road at Edgecliff Station, relieving congestion in Elizabeth Street. Problem solved if no further bus routes are run along Elizabeth Street.

But O'Farrell has no intention of allowing people to go where they want to go.

Trapped in the bus priority lane
From corner with Park Street 

Bus services that run along Victoria Road have for generations entered the CBD from the Western Distributor via King Street and proceeded to Circular Quay along George Street then returned form Druitt Street. But there are efficient alternative terminuses: buses can turn into York Street to a terminus at the Queen Victoria Building, or they can enter from the exclusive bus lane running east along Druitt Street to a terminus in Clarence Street and exit from Market Street.

So what's with the double-ended mauve arrow directing Victoria Road bus services into William Street? This diagram was reproduced in the last post along with the ominous assertions about Druitt and Park Street being the main east-west bus routes.

The answer is that the invading hordes from the north are being brought into the heart of the CBD in order to herd them into the privately-operated cattle cars. Bus services from the north are given priority for the bus stops at the QVB and bus services from the Western Distributor that perforce enter the middle of the CBD are shunted into William Street.

But where will these services terminate? They cannot do a U-turn in William Street, so they must perforce continue to the bus interchange at Edgecliff Station. Alternatively buses could continue to Watsons Bay and commit suicide by driving off the cliff.

Edgecliff Station bus interchange

Entry to the bus interchange at Edgecliff Station is from Ocean Street which provides an efficient terminus for AM and PM peak bus services from New South Head Road east of Ocean Street, but involves a diabolical right-hand turn from New South Head Road for buses terminating from Victoria Road.

Bus blocking traffic

Bus stops in William Street force bus drivers to block a lane of traffic when picking up or setting down passengers as required by the contract with the builders of the Cross City Tunnel. But O'Farrell's plans for Edgecliff bus interchange will further obstruct traffic flows along New South Head Road (already operating bumper to bumper at peak times) before any one has a chance to enter the Tunnel. The SMH reported yesterday that the lenders were getting nervous. O'Farrell could be sending the Tunnel's operators into receivership for a second time. It is worth noting that the public servants who did the modeling for the Cross City Tunnel are possibly doing the infantile modeling for the light rail.

The cunning plan in continuing New South Head Road bus services to Town Hall is to feed passengers onto the cattle cars. Like, people are going to catch a bus to Town Hall then a tram to Randwick rather than drive or catch a bus there, along Avoca Street. People will be encouraged though, to transfer to the loop trains at Town Hall Station.