WestConnex turns into NorthShoreConnex

Vague alignment diagram from SMH

It seems like only yesterday that Abbott and Baird were posing in front of a billboard of the WestConnex southern extension. Now both are facing the prospect of becoming one-term wonders like the Victorian government and Baird is trying to counter this by becoming even more obscure about his intentions. What the people don't know can't hurt him.

When he announced the "northern extension" of the WestConnex project as part of the justification for the sale of the urban electricity distribution networks throughout NSW computer-graphic generated videos were released with little arrows indicating vaguely where traffic would be dumped. Now the latest changes are announced by emails with no attempt to justify the new route with traffic analysis or to clarify where the exits will be. The object of the exercise is simply to obliterate the pesky little arrows that were shown in the video, before the election. Traffic must eventually come to the surface from the three-lane tunnels each way, we just won't know where before the election. The final Question Time of the Parliament before the election has been held so Baird is home free.

Gay confirmed that the little arrows at Petersham aimed at the oval would be eliminated so the new alignment does nothing to reduce congestion in Parramatta Road. He said that Stage 3 would still dump traffic into Parramatta Road in Camperdown west of the University of Sydney but Son of Bruce Almighty only knows if this will be west of Pyrmont Bridge Road, so the traffic heading inexorably to Pitt Street will be greater.

Who pays for all this?

Baird has refused twice to refute that he would privatise the whole of the state's electricity distribution network if he is elected Premier for the first time. His claims of being able to raise $20 billion from the sale of the "poles and wires" require the sale to occur immediately and for the money to remain in bank accounts for many years to accumulate interest. He has promised a spending spree on hospitals and other projects in western Sydney which could begin immediately. His figures do not add up.

Traffic from the North Shore will still clog the Glebe Island Bridge U-bend unless a mind-numbingly expensive road tunnel is built under Balmain and Sydney Harbour, leading inexorably to the Jewel in the Crown for the North Shore rump politicians: the even more mind-numbingly expensive road tunnel under Middle Harbour and the Spit.

Drivers from the North Shore currently can travel for free south along the Eastern Distributor so they will not be paying for any of this.

North Shore politicians give nothing away

North Shore politicians announce another row of dots

The start of something really big

Baird and Abbott have finally made an announcement about plans to add six more lanes to the existing four lanes of the M5 motorway. There are startling differences to the original motorway which provides direct connections to the Port facilities at Port Botany, to the International and Domestic terminals at Mascot and to the Sydney Harbour tunnel via the Eastern Distributor as well as access to the Eastern Suburbs.

The end of the Edgeware Road

The six extra lanes do nothing but dump uncontrollable volumes of vehicles into narrow local roads: Euston Road, Edgeware Road and via a new bridge over the Alexandra Canal to Bourke Road.

The schematics and CG videos for WestConnex all showed the motorway travelling along the surface after passing under the King Street with silly little arrows signifying exit ramps directly to the airport access road Airport Drive and direct access to Gardeners Road and to the Princes Highway but this has all been scrapped for access only to Euston Road. Eighty homes will be demolished to widen Campbell Road to carry traffic to Edgeware and Bourke Roads. Duncan Gay stated that only 100 homes would be forcibly aquired for the WestConnex project. This was clearly untrue.

All 5 eastern light-blue little arrows are fraudulent

The North Shore politicians Abbott and Baird are competing with one another as to who can lie the most blatantly before an election.

The dark blue little arrows will require massive resumptions of property and nothing has been disclosed. The residents of St Peters got as much warning they were to be targeted as an Iraqi villager hit by a remotely-controlled drone strike.

Presumably there will be tolls on the existing lanes of the M5 which have never had tolls but there is no information on what the tolls will be if Baird wins the election. The only information the public has about the project which was an election promise at the last election is the usual lines of dots on vague maps that are deliberately contradictory. All the North Shore politicians have achieved in four years is to put public servants who are devoid of any ethical conscience in control of Departments and order them to churn out deceptive computer generated videos.

New M5 press release

I have finally found a copy of the press release that was blown up into a billboard for Abbott, Baird and Roads and Maritime Services minister Duncan Gay to posture in front of. If you click on it it blows up to full size but don't bother: it is deliberately deceptive and designed to conceal the failure of the "new M5" to meet any of its design objectives.

On every motorway in the state traffic enters a carriageway from the lefthand side. The public servants who produced the billboard have the southbound carriageway of Euston Road, widened by demolishing homes, extended south across the waste transfer station to tunnel under Canal Street and under or over the blue-line tunnels. Then we are asked to believe the on ramp would tunnel back over or under the blue-line tunnels to feed traffic into three-lane "New M5" tunnels before the proposed split to a Southern motorway.

The drawings deliberately conceal if the Euston Road on and off ramps pass over or under the blue-line carriageways that end in a blank wall. However Baird announced in June that he would build "rapid transit" rail tunnels under the existing rail tunnel under King Street, and the road tunnels of Stage 3 line up with these tunnels like astrological points presaging doom. If the "rapid transit" rail tunnels had to pass under the road tunnels even single-deck trains would be battling to make it back to the surface in time for the residents along the Bankstown rail line to be handed over to a Chinese communist corporation.

The plans above are flagged as "indicative". This is the standard method of public servants and the highly-paid foreign-based consultancy companies employed by North Shore politicians to absolve themselves of any professional obligation. All the figures of tramstops in the EIS for the light rail produced by Booz & Company were flagged as "indicative" and we now have had confirmed that they were all deceptive and deliberately contradictory.

North Shore filth clogs the U-bend

Glebe Island U-bend

The Western motorway east of Parramatta carries the most traffic of any road in the state. Nick Greiner recognised this when he placed the toll booths to pay for the extension of the motorway west of Church Street onto the existing motorway to the east. Bob Carr promised to refund the toll paid by private car owners from general funds and won the election in April 1995 by one seat. Now Baird will reintroduce the toll on this stretch of the motorway to fund the construction of a tunnel under Parramatta Road.

Placing the toll booths to the east of Church Street had unexpected consequences which I pointed out in a submission to the EIS of the M7 motorway: "No power in the known universe can prevent motorists from transferring to the M4, travelling to the Prospect Highway for free and reaching the M2 motorway in half the time". I discussed this in a previous post in February The power of pricing. The M7 retained its planned alignment but the second half of the motorway from Liverpool north of the western motorway was for free. The deliriously incompetent public servants put in control of TfNSW were oblivious to the compromises taken when waxing lyrically on the future of NSW roads but evidently there were former officers of RTA who had retained a memory of what is now referred to as toll capping because it is now described as successful - the M7 did not file for insolvency before being taken over by Transurban. Previously toll capping was used to solve a particular problem created by Greiner but now it is being used in a particularly nasty example of class warfare.

The Greiner stratagem returns with a vengeance

M4 extension beyond Concord Road

All the way to Wattle Street, Ashfield

Plans for the extension of the M4 eastward from just east of Concord Road to the start of the City-West link road at Wattle Street have long been on the drawing board. Attempts to press ahead have been vigorously resisted by residents along the link road. North Shore politicians have countered this by not disclosing any details, just dotted lines of the route with silly little arrows suggesting on and off ramps.

Unlike previous plans there is now an intention to replicate Parramatta Road with tunnels with three lanes in each direction leading to ramps back up to Parramatta Road somewhere to the west of Pyrmont Bridge Road in a Stage 3, in the same manner that William Street and Epping Road were replicated. The PPPs that built the previous schemes filed for insolvency and the backers lost everything. This time it will be an "availability PPP" where the NSW taxpayer is sure to be the loser.

As with the previous Greiner stratagem it is motorists using the existing roadways east of Church Street that will pay for the tunnels under Parramatta Road. These roads are currently free now that the contracts with the PPP that built  the missing link in the M4 have expired. Now motorists will be slugged $3.90 to drive to Homebush Bay Drive with a minimum cost of $1.50 for one small section. Driving further to the City-West link would cost a further $3.60 with a minimum cost for one leg of $2, a total cost of $7.50, except there will be a maximum cap of $7.35 for a journey. Motorists who decide to drive to the CBD (i.e. Pitt Street) rather than use public transport or who drive to the airport will pay less than nothing for the rest of their journey. These figures are for 2013 and are already being indexed for inflation.

So who pays for the insanely expensive tunnels of Stage 3?

It is of course the Tradies and the working poor of Western Sydney who have to use the local roads to get from job to job who will pay for the free ride of commuters to the CBD (i.e. Pitt Street).

The people of western Sydney won't just be paying for the tunnels with the tolls. Baird and Abbott will be tipping $1.8 billion and $1.5 billion of taxpayer's money (or rather deficit spending to be paid off by tax rises in the future) into the project. This is money that would otherwise fund schools, hospitals and aborted bombing missions over Iraq. The $1.8 billion announced by the state government is just a token amount for a project that has not been designed, costed, disclosed or subjected to any kind of feasibility study. The Baird government has promised that the NSW government will provide unlimited taxpayer's money to fund a project estimated to cost well in excess of $11 billion.

It gets worse

Screenshot of WestConnex the computer generated video

Electoral fraud

When Baird announced his plan to pay a Chinese communist corporation to bombard Town Hall station with 40,000 passengers an hour, forever, he also announced plans for a extension from Anzac bridge to the Stage 3 tunnels. The project had not been designed, costed, disclosed or subjected to any kind of feasibility study but was given a cost of $7 billion. As always the project is just a string of dots with two little arrows at the end.

Currently the City-West link road gives traffic from the west free access to the Anzac bridge and thence the Cross City Tunnel and the Western Distributor and the Harbour bridge. They need a tunnel from Parramatta Road like a hole in the bedrock.

Currently motorists from the North Shore travel for free from the Harbour tunnel to the south via the Eastern Distributor. The sole purpose of Baird's project is to give them the choice of travelling via the Harbour Bridge and the Anzac bridge. Motorists who choose this route will be clogging both these bridges which cannot be increased in capacity. They will be clogging two vital arteries to the CBD and the Eastern Suburbs forever.

Albert the Magic Pudding

No toll can be placed on this northern extension as the alternative routes are free. So Baird will fund it by selling taxpayer assets, the "poles and wires" of the electricity distribution network - the Magic Pudding of North Shore residents. So residents of the Northern Suburbs will be driving their multiple cars per household to their holiday homes on the south coast for free. The whole cost of building the tunnels of Stage 3 will fall on the tradies and working poor of western Sydney who have no alternative but to use the local roads to go from job to job. Unlike the Greiner project Baird has not set any date at which the tolls would be ended.

The North Shore filth looks after the North Shore residents at any cost.

The case against the WestConnex project is covered more extensively at westconnex.info

A message to the people of Western Sydney

from the self-proclaimed Minister for Western Sydney

Ask not for whom the road toll
The tolls for you.

Exercises in futility

Liberal Party poster November 1966

I never subscribed to the Domino Theory in SE Asia. Public libraries were full of books on the subject at the time. Clearly a small Roman Catholic establishment that formed in Saigon during the French colonial occupation was trying to impose itself on the Buddhist rural peasantry. The cadres from North Vietnam were physically indistinguishable from the rural population in the south. It was always going to end in the humiliation of the US military.

I attended protest meetings at the University of WA which were mild affairs. A Liberal Senator from the Eastern States used to fly over to try and stir students up. When public opinion turned against the war the politicians did not want to have anything with returning Veterans.

I did not have much sympathy for Vietnam Vets until I read   Well Done Those Men by Barry Heard an account by one of the Nashos in the first birthday draft of his deployment and subsequent problems with late-onset Post Traumatic Stress Disorder - he poos himself when under stress, such as when he meets people.

There goes our AAA

Now Abbott is trying to replicate Menzies' electoral success by sending military advisers to work alongside Iraqi troops to combat Islamic State fighters who, when they take down their black and white flags, are indistinguishable from the local populations. The ABC reports that this will be a "triple A" mission - Advise, Assist and Accompany.

The most traumatic events faced by Australian combat troops in Afghanistan were green-on-blue attacks. The perpetrators in Iraq will have a vast area to escape into, currently occupied by Australian jihadists.

For the rest of us the biggest problem is the effect on Australia's credit rating. The deployment has already added $1 billion to the Australian deficit and there are still no Australian troops in Iraq. To put this in perspective: this is 40% of the capped $2.55 billion has budgeted to be spent on "Direct Action" over six years to meet Australia's minimum international obligations on Climate Change; this is more than twice what it would cost to restore the Pitt/Castlereagh Streets tram loop and make the Sydney CBD future proof.

When George W Bush invaded Iraq Australian Special Forces had entered Iraq and were killing Iraqis trying the defend their Homeland before the countdown to his ultimation had expired. If I was an Iraqi I would not have forgotten this. When Australian troops are cleared to enter Iraq the Islamic State fighters will think all their Christmases have come at once - if they believed in Christmas.

The trams that destroyed the metro

Screen shot from Harbour Rail Tunnel the video

The schematic diagrams in the scoping study Sydney's Rail Futures undertaken by the Transport Projects Division of TfNSW showed the Harbour rail tunnel to the east of the Harbour Bridge with the rails incongruously crossing the Northern line rails at grade along the quadrupled rails north of St Leonards.

SRT Fact Sheet

The STR Fact Sheet released by TfNSW now shows the tunnel continuing north to west Circular Quay then veering east to cross between Walsh Bay and McMahons Point. This forces the tunnel to pass under the deepest part of the Harbour.

3D sonar mapping of the Sydney Harbour bed

The Harbour bed here is 45 metres below current sea level. To put this in perspective, the Harbour road tunnels which were built by sinking prefabricated sections into a trench dredged in the Harbour floor are 25 metres below sea level. The edges of the trench show up in the sonar images above. The Cross City tunnels are further beneath sea level than the Sydney Harbour road tunnels. They were constructed be lowering the four tunnelling borers into a 40 metre deep dive shaft near the intersection of Bourke and William Streets (the lowest point east of Darling Harbour) and boring east and west.

The alignment of the proposed rail tunnels under the Harbour has been predicated by the determination of the Baird government to use the First Fleet Park on the western side of Circular Quay as the dive shaft for the tunnel borers and for the extraction of spoil from the excavations for the tunnels and stations. The scoping study refers to "significant disruption within the CBD with approximately 190,000 truck movements over 3-4 years for removal of spoil from station caverns and shafts". Note that this was for tunnels that ended just west of Redfern Station. Extending the tunnels to Sydenham junction will generate a lot more spoil.

Note also that the consequences of a tram alignment along George Street was not factored in to the study either.

George and Grosvenor Streets

The George Street trams reduce access to the Rocks to one lane northbound and one lane southbound. The southbound lane terminates at Bridge Street and no right-turns are allowed to Grosvenor Street. All spoil-laden trucks from First Fleet Park will perforce turn into Bridge Street then have to queue to make a right-hand turn with buses from the only place in the CBD where they can physically turn around that was not obliterated by the George Street trams. People south of the Harbour who use public transport will endure years of pain during the construction of the metro tunnels for no gain whatsoever.

Before Berejiklian

Before Ms Berejiklian became Minister for Transport the people of Bankstown had it made:

Rail map Before Berejiklian

The inner-west line looped round to Bankstown station through Regents Park. Commuters could access all the stations west of Lidcombe without changing trains and could access all the stations of the northern line with one change of train at Strathfield. The trains to the east gave access to all the stations of the City Circle without changing trains and one change of train to the Illawarra line at Sydenham or Central or any station in between gave access to Martin Place and the stations of the Eastern Suburbs line.

The only constraint on the frequency of trains on the Bondi Junction-Cronulla route is the availability of rolling stock. And of course the numbers of passengers needing to reach a station during a particular time period. Martin Place has now been developed almost to the full extent allowed by floor-space ratios. Even the Commonwealth Bank building that was the model for tin can money boxes that were distributed to school kids when I was at school (and was where Joe Hockey's mother-in law received inappropriate investment advice pre-GFC) is being redeveloped.

Ms Berejiklian will force Bankstown commuters onto a train that stops at only one of the destinations that could be reached with one change of train: Martin Place. To reach any other of the destinations that they were formerly able to reach they will need to change trains at least once. They will of course do this at the first opportunity, in fact, the only opportunity: Sydenham Station.

The SRT fact sheet (link above) trumpets: "The total number of people reliably carried on a train line in an hour is the true measure of rail capacity. Sydney's rapid transit target of about 40,000 per hour is comparable to the average hourly capacity of rapid transit trains worldwide".

Wow. We have seen this warped logic before with the George Street Light Rail project where it was claimed that 20,000 passengers per hour could be delivered to Circular Quay. This claim was revised to "up to 20,000" then resurrected by the public servants at Planning and whatever else who can not be challenged. In fact the wildly optimistic modelling of the consultants projected that only 724 would transfer from the trams at Circular Quay during the morning peak hour.

In fact a rail line will relieve pressure on existing rail services only if passengers remain on the trains and exit from the trains at the few and far between stations on the line. Passengers silly enough to stay on the the single deck trains and exit at "Martin Place" will literally have no where to go. The George Street buses will have been obliterated by the trams that do not stop at Martin Place and only stop at the train stations they could reach by changing trains at Sydenham station. The bus services in Elizabeth Street will have ground to a halt between the mother of all pinch points at the Old Supreme Court Building and the enhanced pinch points in Phillip Street. The only access to Barangaroo will be to walk.

SRT Key facts

The fact sheet asserts "SRT was identified in Sydney's Rail Future as the next big rail project". The claims that single deck trains have a greater capacity than double deck trains is based solely on the assertion that they have less dwell time at stations. To achieve this single deck trains must have:

• "Dedicated line operating independently of the existing rail network".
• "More doors make it quicker to get on and off".
• "Minimal gap between platform and train - platform level with train doors".
• "Platform screen safety doors".
• "Just turn up and go - no need for time tables".

Baird is claiming that driverless trains can operate more frequently regardless of passenger loads because a driver is not being paid. This argument only makes sense to North Shore climate change deniers.

In a post in January Gladys' bottom of the Harbour scheme I pointed out that the platforms on the Macquarie University line would have to be converted to carry only single deck trains - "for one thing the platform heights are different" - and was attacked like a pick pocket. It is a fact.

The claims that single-deck trains can achieve incredible increases in the number of trains passing along a track in an hour is based on infantile modelling and is spurious. The time taken to herd passengers on and off trains at stations has a minor effect on the frequency of trains only if there can be no relief rails and extra platforms at major stations. The modelling is applicable only to tracks where all trains stop at all stations. The Western lines in Sydney achieve far greater capacities and faster trip times for longer journeys as they run express services that leapfrog long stretches of stations.

There were long established plans for two-track relief rails from Sydenham to Redfern but these were aborted by Ms Berejiklian.

Turning back the foreign trains

The "SRT fact sheet" issued by Baird personally in June claims that there will be "11 existing stations upgraded to rapid transit". This does not include the stations on the Epping-Chatswood line. The fact sheet shows a schematic of the single-deck trains turning back at Bankstown and double-deck trains from Cabramatta and Lidcombe terminating and transferring passengers at Bankstown station:

Single-deck rail line schematic, June 2014

This is an outrageously transparent deception by the Premier of NSW that will cost the taxpayers billions of dollars if Baird is not sent packing by voters on March 28. Trains have never turned back at Bankstown station - there are no provisions for this. Baird is adopting the election strategy of his Federal North Shore colleague Tony Abbott - nothing he says can be believed.

In fact there are 21 stations between Sydenham junction and the turnbacks that have already been built at Cabramatta and Lidcombe. "Upgrading" these stations to single-deck foreign trains will be extremely costly for the taxpayer and disruptive for residents along these lines and confer no benefits whatsoever for commuters south of the Harbour.

Dulwich Hill station, one of 21 19th century stations to be "upgraded"

Dulwich Hill station is an example of a station on the line. The two-track freight line to the north was converted to light rail by the previous government. The freight line to the west, from the Shoalhaven River, still operates but one of the lines could be used as a relief rail for express eastbound commuter services to the CBD.

The true schematic

The ultimate plan of the North Shore rump

The Transport Projects Division (TPD) of TfNSW projected the train frequencies along the suburban rail lines for the foreseeable future. They did not project that train frequencies along the Bankstown line would ever exceed 12 per hour. A double-deck train service which they claim can only carry 20 trains per hour without relief tracks can clearly meet the demand for capacity on this line forever.

There is no earthly reason for handing over this public rail line laid down in the nineteenth century to a Chinese communist controlled consortium and using NSW taxpayers' assets to pay for converting the stations to take only the off-the-shelf French single-deck trains chosen by the Chinese communists.

The Epping to Chatswood line was not projected to carry more than 18 trains per hour during the AM peak, ever. There is no earthly reason for converting the platforms to carry only French single-deck trains.

The "scoping study" prepared by TPD and presumably taken to Cabinet by Ms Berejiklian in July 2012 or later is infantile in its methodology and naïve in its assumptions. No attempt was made to assess the actual numbers of passengers that would be expected to alight at the various platforms at different times of the day. The public servants were just shuffling figures based on their (false) assumptions of the maximum capacities of the individual rail lines. Many of the assertions in the figures were patently physically impossible and were dropped from the plans announced by Baird - there were no inter-platform connections with existing stations at Circular Quay, Town Hall and Redfern and no mention was made of a connection to the Eastern Suburbs line, and the tunnel is now continued south from Central to Sydenham junction, whatever the cost.

The schematic shows a line to the east merging into the Epping-Chatswood line north of Chatswood presumably representing a Northern Beaches Rail line which makes up the numbers of single-deck trains that would increase the trains per hour to the "up to 30" they claim can be achieved by herding passengers on and off more quickly at stations - a 50% increase in the frequency of the trains! Other schematic figures in the study show the Northern Beaches Rail line merging god knows where with the tunnel under North Sydney after presumably wending its way under Military Road.

The Northern Beaches rail line

It would be nice to show images of the proposed routes for the Northern Beaches rail line whether they merge with the rail tunnel north of Chatswood or under North Sydney but they don't exist. Baird is citing this line as the sole justification for running single-deck trains under the Harbour but there is no route, no land acquisitions and no estimates of the costs or any study of the feasibility of building a rail line to sparsely populated beachside suburbs. The line would have to pass under or over Middle Harbour and negotiate the Narrabeen lakes and would cost a hell of a lot more than the Northwest rail line now costed at $8.3 billion.

TPD estimated the cost of a rail tunnel under Sydney Harbour and the CBD to Central Station with an undetermined alignment and two stations god knows how far beneath Pitt Street at $8.585 billion in June 2012. This did not include the cost of converting stations on the Epping-Chatswood line and south of the Harbour to carry only single-deck foreign trains. We can now get a fuzzy estimate of the minimum cost to the taxpayer of running single-deck trains on the Sydney rail network: well in excess of $30 billion. This is more than Baird would hope to raise by selling the whole 100% of the electricity distribution network, converting a public utility into a privately-owned monopoly.

The sole raison d'être for a rail tunnel under the Harbour to Central Station is for a Northern Beaches line. Commuters on the Northern line and the northwest line can travel from Epping anti-clockwise to stations west of Central and change at Strathfield station for destinations further to the west or south - no rational human being would pass under the Harbour to a platform god knows how deep under Central station and back track to the west.

The TPD scoping study showed trains from the Northern Beaches merging with the Epping-Chatswood line moments before arriving at the same platform at Chatswood, or with an alternate alignment so deep under Military Road there would be lift access only until well north of the Spit moments before arriving at the platform at "Victoria Cross" where ever that may be. They then pass through the tunnel with a claimed incredible frequency of 30 trains per hour. In fact, riffle shuffling trains from disparate lines as they arrive at a platform would so degrade the frequency of the trains on the line it would be far less than the 20 trains per hour that TfNSW claims is the maximum capacity for lines carrying double-deck trains. Dwell periods at stations cannot be predicted even by supercomputers as they vary with the number of disabled passengers being herded on and off a particular station at a time of day - it is impossible to determine when a train will turn up at a junction. The single-deck trains will have a lower frequency and carry far less passengers on each train, most of them standing.

Passengers arriving at the Chatswood single-deck platform from the Northern Beaches would make the same mass exodus to Harbour Bridge trains as those that arrive from Epping - the metro CBD stations do not connect anyone with anything.

The Independent Mayor of Willoughby Pat Reilly pointed out in July 2013 that high-rise residential towers in the redevelopment of Chatswood station had made the enclosure over the rail lines only wide enough for four tracks leaving no room for a rail link to the northern beaches. You can read his comments here. A TfNSW spokeswoman conceded that existing development near Chatswood station constrained the width of the rail corridor but it was wide enough for future needs. Chatswood is the pinch point for the northern rail system just as Town Hall station is the pinch point for the City Circle. It is beyond belief that public servants at TfNSW could be oblivious to the impact this would have on the frequency of trains that will ever be able to pass through a Harbour rail tunnel.

There are overwhelming reasons for not allowing a Chinese communist corporation exclusive use of the Epping-Chatswood rail line and no earthly reason for allowing this to take place.

The CCC PPP

Baird announced that taxpayer assets would be sold and used to extend a Harbour rail tunnel from Central to Sydenham junction in order to hand over the Bankstown rail line to a Chinese communist corporation (CCC). The only motivation for this is to boost the profits of the PPP. The tunnel extension had never been costed and no consultation had been made with residents, businesses or Councils along the line. Commuters would be forced onto a rail service that does not connect anyone with anything and would have no say in the matter. There has been no disclosure of where the few stations on the line would be or how passengers would gain access to the real world from the platforms.

Protests in Hong Kong demanding local representation, 28 September 2014
Tear gas has been fired at protesters but no Tianamen Square style massacre to date

So what is the consortium to which Baird will give an exclusive right to run trains on lines built by taxpayer funds?

MTR Corporation was set up as a government-owned statutory authority in Hong Kong in 1975 and was floated on the Hong Kong Stock exchange in 2005. It is still 76% owned by the government which is effectively appointed by the communist politburo in Beijing.

MTR is a major property developer and manager in Hong Kong, making most of its profits from these activities.

Private-Public-Partnerships are attractive to Chinese communist investors - the major investor in the Cross City and Lane Cove road tunnels was a communist Chinese billionaire. PPPs provide a steady cash stream to foreign investors which can be funnelled into tax havens controlled by Chinese triads such as Macao. The investors in the road tunnel PPPs lost everything but this PPP has been set up so the NSW taxpayer loses everything.

Taxpayer assets that provide $3 billion each year for ongoing expenditure on schools and hospitals are to be sold off and spent on building a CBD metro that does not provide connections to anything. NSW taxpayers across the state will be paying higher electricity prices, a higher Goods and Services Tax rate (we're told 15%) and higher prices for public transport which is being crippled to force passengers onto the George Street trams and the Metro. The only passengers on the metro will be from stations that have been converted to carry only the single-deck trains selected by the Chinese communist corporation and owned and operated by the consortium. Passengers will abandon the carriages at the first opportunity and transfer to double-deck trains so the metro lines are unlikely to operate at a profit ever but any profits will go to the consortium. Treasury has named the consortium that will select, own and operate the rolling stock but there is no disclosure of anything else about the contract being entered into.

Opel card data bonanza

The Opal card provides details on where you begin a trip and where the trip ultimately ends up on a daily, hourly or real time basis via the internet. This data is invaluable in planning intergated public transport services for competent transport planners. The data provides information on where you live and where you go the meet contacts on, say, Grindr or Kinder or any of your other activities. The consortium will have access to all this data in real time and can arrange for you to be tracked as you leave the vehicles.

It will not be difficult for authorities in mainland China to monetarise the wealth of personal data being collected about you. In New South Wales they will not have to hack the passwords of Google employees to obtain data they can use about you. The Napthine government in Victoria is the only other government in the world as cavalier with the data about its citizens.

A $30,000 drop in the ocean

Barry O'Farrell at press conference at ICAC

Barry O'Farrell declined to be interviewed for the 4 Corners program Democracy for Sale but was the subject of bemused speculation. You can read a transcript here. Kristina Keneally surmised: "I suppose the question I have is, maybe he didn't want to survive?"

It stands to reason: if he could not lie blatantly about a 30 thousand dollar bottle of wine and get away with it how could he lie blatantly about a 30 billion dollar rail system?

He probably expected Ms Berejiklian to be elected to replace him but the parliamentary members had reservations about her and the gormless Baird, the Steven Bradbury of North Shore politics, was left with the problems he had created. Abbott had said there would be no Federal funding for urban rail projects and was pressing for State gonernments to sell taxpayer assets. The jig was up.

So now NSW has a Premier who is too stupid to see the insanity of what he is doing.

Put a caption to this picture

Ms Berejiklian demonstrates what she does to Mike Baird's cojones

PERL before SWline

Northern Line

There is no earthly reason for foreign single deck trains to pass under the Harbour and under the CBD. It flows from this that there is no earthly reason for a foreign-owned and operated corporation to convert a taxpayer funded rail line from Epping to Chatswood to its exclusive use.

There is no earthly reason for forcing commuters using the Epping-Hornsby line to change to a foreign single-deck train at Epping then to a double deck train at Chatswood to cross the Harbour Bridge.

There is no earthly reason why a shuttle "North West Metro train service" should not terminate at Epping rather than Chatswood.

In fact there are compelling reasons for  terminating single deck trains at Epping. At Epping commuters have a choice of transferring to a clockwise train to Chatswood, North Sydney and Wynyard or an anticlockwise train through Strathfield, Redfern and Central.

Transferring the Epping-Chatswood rail line to a foreign-owned PPP breaks the loop making it impossible to efficiently turn Northern Line trains around. The Strathfield junction was not designed for grade-separated access to the City Circle lines, which are fully loaded at present, and the lines at Chatswood Station were not designed for trains from the Harbour Bridge to turn back.

Running on empty

During the Presidential election campaign that re-elected George W Bush the Fox Network picked up on a phrase used by a political analyst: "Running on empty". I can't see what relevance the phrase had to the Kerry campaign. If Baird is not sent packing by the NSW electorate on 28th March his legacy will be trams that run on empty to Circular Quay after depositing passengers in Chalmers Street, buses that run on empty to Circular Quay after depositing passengers in Eddy Avenue because all the places in the CBD where it is physically possible for them to turn around have been obliterated by the George Street trams, and trains that run on empty across the Harbour Bridge to Chatswood after depositing passengers at Central Station. The Sydney CBD will have effectively have been rendered inoperable.

So will the Murdoch Press resurrect the phrase during the State election campaign? Don't hold your breath. Climate change deniers stick together no matter what the consequences for human society.

The South West Rail line

Glenfield Station under construction 2012

The South West rail line was exhibited, approved and funded by the previous State government. Stage one for work around Glenfield station was approved in April 2009 and Stage two for extension to Leppington was approved in November 2010 and contracts were awarded to John Holland Group three weeks later. The Abbott government has refused to provide any funding for further extension of the line despite announcing that there will be an airport at Badgery's Creek - a train line will be constructed under the runways but not connected to anything. Baird will not spend a brass razoo of money he hopes to raise from selling electricity distribution assets on the line.

The flyovers at Glenfield Station feed trains into the East Hills line feeding into the Airport Line and into the Great Southern line through Liverpool and Cabramatta stations. If Baird converts the Sydenham to Cabramatta line to carry only foreign single-deck trains the only way for commuters on the SW line to reach destinations north of the Harbour will be to transfer from a Southern Line City Circle service through Granville to a Northern line service at Strathfield. The trains will then continue running on emptied to the City Circle.

This is not what was planned by the sane and rational public servants who prevailed in transport planning prior to the election of the North Shore Rump government.

Historically Sydney had developed a CBD centric transport system but it was long recognised that this placed unsustainable pressure on the City Circle loop. It was the Wran government that built the Marylands-Harris Park rail link between the Southern line and the Western line west of Parramatta. This link predates the Greiner government.

The Parramatta-Chatswood Rail Link

The Parramatta-Chatswood rail line was conceived to allow commuters using the Southern lines to transfer at Parramatta Station to reach destinations north of the Harbour without using trains that pass through Granville, Lidcombe and Strathfield stations and terminate by passing round the City Circle and changing destination to a Illawarra line. For this to happen double-deck trains from the Western line must be able to share use of the Epping-Chatswood line with Northern line trains. There is nothing to be gained from allowing foreign single-deck trains exclusive use of the taxpayer-funded Epping-Chatswood line and there is everything to lose.

Parramatta-Chatswood rail line

If the Bankstown line is handed over to a foreign consortium then ironically the only trains for commuters on the Southern line to reach destinations north of the Harbour will pass through Marylands station but instead of continuing one extra stop to Parramatta Station will have to circle south through six stations to Strathfield station in order to transfer to a Northern line train. The alternative route from Cabramatta to Lidcombe via Regent Park to Strathfield is also forever obliterated.

The Gillard government promised to provide 80% of the funding for the Parramatta-Epping Rail Line PERL on 11th August 2010. The project was costed at $2.6 billion and $2.08 was set aside to fund construction "over 4 years from 2014-2015".

The project was postponed on 29th May 2013 with an announcement from Federal Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese: "Following the NSW government's rejection of this funding the full amount was reallocated to the following program scheduled to begin in 2019-2020.

"This project remains vital to Sydney's future and I would urge the NSW government to reconsider their decision to shelve it."

Ms Berejiklian riposted: "We are getting on with the job of building the north-west rail and south-west rail links, with or without federal funding".

It turns out this requires handing over a taxpayer-funded rail line to a foreign-owned consortium regardless of the cost and selling profitable taxpayers assets ostensively to fund projects that have not been designed or costed. The costs are incalculable.

Counterproductive

Baird made a video to garner support for selling urban electricity distribution networks claiming that he would "unlock congestion" if he considered he had a mandate to sell taxpayer assets. The only commuters from the south-west and suburbs further south on the Southern line who would not catch a train passing through the City Circle would be headed for Parramatta or destinations further west on the Western line. A rail tunnel under the CBD that has connections only to lift shafts emerging god knows where is counterproductive even if commuters on the Bankstown line do not jump ship at Sydenham and north-west line commuters do not jump ship at Epping and Chatswood.

How the West lost everything

Parramatta to Epping rail link

The rail line from Epping to Parramatta was part of the project to build a rail link from Parramatta to Chatswood and St Leonards and received the required approval from the Director General of the Department of Planning in February 2002. The project had been the subject of extensive consultations with Councils and Community groups at Parramatta, Epping, Chatswood and tragically Lane Cove and had been extensively modified in the course of these discussions. Community groups had pressured the Government to abandon plans to build a rail bridge over the Lane Cove river and instead to tunnel under the river. Costs blew out and the relatively inexpensive rail link from Epping to Parramatta was postponed.

The Gillard government promised funding for the project but it was subsequently downgraded in the list of priorities when the O'Farrell government refused to make the required state funding contribution. Tony Abbott has announced that there will be no federal funding for urban rail projects ever by a coalition government.

The Parramatta/Epping rail link was designed to provide a direct link between the western suburbs and the northern rail lines and the bus services to the north east from Epping and the bus services to the Northern Beach suburbs from Chatswood. Commuters would not be forced to catch a train service that crossed the Harbour Bridge and transfer to an outbound Central Coast train at Strathsfield station or actually stay on the train across the Bridge. This would relieve pressure on the train services between Epping and Strathfield and on the train services across the Harbour Bridge.

Now Baird has confirmed that if he wins the election on 28th March the taxpayer funded rail line from Epping to Chatswood will be made inaccessible to double-deck trains from the Western line through Parramatta. Parramatta was the second major settlement after the establishment of the colony at Farm Cove. The hopes of Parramatta to cement its place as the western city hub will never eventuate if the self-proclaimed Minister for Western Sydney is not sent packing on 28th March.

The First Tranche

The Sydney Morning Herald was able to obtain files on the North West Rail under the Government Information (Public Access) act despite fierce opposite from the government. They have published the confidential cabinet report on CBD Rail Capacity Programs Rail Futures Investigations

The remarkable thing is that the project announced precipitously by Baird as he was reeling from resignations in the wake of the ICAC hearings did not feature in any of the scenarios considered in the investigations. As far as can be gathered from all the documents that the government was forced to release no attempt has ever been made to cost the project Baird has cited as the reason for hocking the urban electricity distribution network for 99 years.

The investigation confidential to Cabinet use stylised diagrams of the rail network and had the childish assertions about trains per hour like those that were trumpeted in the Light Rail brochures, EIS and Secretary's Assessment report. The scenarios were grouped into three categories according to whether the Harbour Bridge rail line (shown above), the Airport Line or half the Erskineville lines were to taken over by the privately-owned single-deck Metro. A tunnel under the Erskineville rail link from Central to Sydenham as announced by Baird was never considered, for obvious reasons.

Category C: the Growth Option

The scenario requiring a tunnel under the Harbour and taking over the two western rails of the Erskineville rail link was described as the Growth option. This option eliminated access to the CBD loop for all people who rely on the Bankstown rail line - the only stops in the CBD were to be at Town Hall and the dubious stop north of Martin Place.

The Plan announced by Baird as the excuse for selling 49% of the urban electricity distribution network was merely the precursor to the much larger scheme which includes the ludicrously uneconomic Northern Beaches rail line and duplication of the under-utilised line from Wolli Creek to Revesby and the line to Hurstville. It also includes conversion of the lines from Bankstown to Cabramatta and Lidcombe to single-deck trains - indeed it is difficult to see how these lines would continue to operate with double-deck trains if the line to Bankstown was unable to carry double-deck trains. Other scenarios for the Growth option show the Northern Beaches rail as a horizontal line east from Chatswood. No work has been done on the design or costing of this line but it is cited as the raison d'être for the Growth option.

The stylised maps taken to Cabinet by Ms Berejiklian all show the Harbour rail tunnel to the east of Wynyard and the Bridge, so clearly the costings in the "investigation" were bottom of the beer coaster calculations. $1 billion was added to the last costings for the Balmain to CBD Metro of $7 billion. No credibility can be attached to these figures - TfNSW has established form for systemic dishonesty.

Indisputably, selling 49% of electricity assets is just the first tranche of the taxpayer asset sales that would be necessary to make the Metro remotely feasible. The price of the Metro is a private monopoly controlling electricity prices with ownership of 100% of the electricity distribution network throughout urban areas.

Then there is the $3 billion dollar a year hit to recurrent state government spending in addition to the $20 billion a year Hockey says he will be taking from expenditure on schools and hospitals. No wonder Liberal Party Premiers and Federal backbenchers are calling for the GST to be increased to 15%.

Between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea

Before the Harbour Bridge was built residents on the North Shore had to catch ferries to get to work in Sydney and fares were collected at Circular Quay as at present. A commuter challenged this in court and in subsequent appeals claiming that when he got off the ferry he was between the devil and the deep blue sea. Court costs were not as high in those days but he would have spent a fair bit, presumably trying to get a free ride to work. There has never been any industry in the North Shore and the main occupations have been in finance and politics. North Shore politicians can run policies that close down manufacturing industries and divert industrial jobs overseas knowing that this will have little direct impact on their electorates.

Hock-economics

The apprentice

Three days before the 2010 election Hockey, in the conspicuous absence of Tony Abbott, announced the Liberal Party's economic policies saying that they had been audited by a West Australian company closely associated to the Party and they could "go to gaol" if they were wrong. Independents held the balance of power after the election and Abbott was forced to submit his figures to Treasury. The auditors did not go to goal but they were fined by their association. The main errors were that the Liberals were proposing to sell off taxpayer's assets but had not factored in the loss of revenue after the sale. Four of the independents from National Party leaning electorates came independently to the conclusion that Abbott could not be trusted and the Liberals would spend the next three years relentlessly (and successfully with the aid of rightwing shock-jocks on steam radio) attacking the scientific and engineering communities.

Tony Windsor, one of the independents, recalled Abbott saying "the only thing I wouldn't do is sell my arse - but I'd have to give serious thought to it." Abbott's ass (amer.) was never on the line, his overweening desire to be Prime Minister was in order to sell taxpayer's assets.

In his first budget Hockey is offering grants from federal tax collections of 15% of the money raised to states that hock public assets. Liberal Party Premiers have traditionally railed against tied grants but Baird is a mindless convert to Hock-economics. The modelling released claimed that hocking 49% of the urban electricity distribution network will raise $13 billion attracting a $2 billion grant which would grow to $20 billion through interest when deposited in the banking system. The amount raised will of course depend on what undertakings are made on the price of power to retail users.

The modelling ignores the fact that the power assets contribute more than $3 billion a year to the ongoing costs of the health and education in the state. This contribution ceases even before the merchant banks have extracted their success fees and management fees for the transaction and is an additional reduction to the $20 billion a year Australia wide that Hockey is boasting he will take from health and education according to the forward estimates. Meanwhile the money from the sale will be earning record-low interest rates which are expected to go lower as unemployment increases.

Eventually the sale of profitable tax-payer assets will be sunk into ludicrously uneconomic projects that will never make any return on the investment. The business case for the George Street trams made absurd claims of economic benefit from reduced congestion but requests in submissions to the EIS for the claims to be verified were disregarded. Now Baird is making similar assertions that he will unlock congestion. Baird has an advantage as none of his claims are backed up by any information. His projects have not been designed, let alone costed, subjected to feasibility studies or cost/benefit studies or had Environmental Assessments. He can claim anything he likes in the lead up to the election on March 28th.

Dirty Tricks

I appear to have been the victim of an attempt to close down this Blog. You make a post pointing out the obvious flaws in the signature policy that Baird will be taking to the election and that is the end of you. My profile on Google+ was blocked when I was accused of impersonating another person. It is ridiculously easy to make these allegations: you go to the profile page of your victim's account at Google+ and click on an arrow under the profile picture, you are asked to specify if the profile name impersonates

• me
• someone I know
• a celebrity

and you are done. The Profile is blocked and the victim has to satisfy an automated appeal process that he is a real person. If he fails to do this within 60 days the Blog can be removed from the servers.

When I tried to open an account with Facebook some years ago my legal name was rejected. When I used my second given name I got it through. This remained one of life's little mysteries until I went to Perth to go to the Swans/Freo semifinal a year ago and went on a tour of the tunnels under Fremantle Goal. You had to introduce yourself to the group and everyone smiled. The tour guide asked if I had seen The Family Guy. I have since Googled it - I still have not watched an episode: I share the same name as the Dad. In the interests of conforming to the mores of social media I will offer the opinion that Josh Thomas has a genius for writing comedy: I Google+ "Please Like Me" (Tuesday nights ABC2).

An attempt to clear my name by giving a URL to the PUSH Facebook page failed dismally. In the end I had to upload my photo to my profile and forward a photo of my drivers licence to the Google appeals process. After more than 4 days I finally got through to my dashboard late last night - the suspension had been lifted.

I have not included the street address of my house in my Google profile or other personal information as eco-terrorists have been known to damage the houses of people they describe as NIMBYs. We are dealing with lunatic fringe groups. It turns out that the North Shore Tea Party rump is the looniest fringe party of them all.

You will have no choice

Light poles at Railway Square

When the bus layover from Lee Street was built the government exhibited plans for "improvements" to Railway Square and George Street. Previously buses had circled the bus stop island, bending the supports for the shelters, so it had to be a big improvement.

I objected vehemently to George Street being reduced to two lanes between Liverpool Street and Bathurst Street northbound. I argued that developers could be encouraged to continue the extension of the underground plaza above Town Hall station and the colonnades begun by the pinstripe office tower. I added that the proposed light towers were aesthetically inferior to the existing towers and asked for the escalators on the east side of Lee Street to be retained. As you can see my comments came to naught. The final report did address the matter of colonnades however. The Lord Mayor, Frank Sartor, later demonized colonnades saying they allowed criminals to avoid CCTV cameras. The City Council has been granting property owners bonuses to the floor space ratios to build shop fronts to their site boundaries.

The narrowing of George Street just before the critical section in front of the Town Hall creates congestion at the only places that buses can make a right-hand turn. There is in fact a short right-hand turn lane at Bathurst Street and a very important bus-only right-hand turn lane into Park Street. This right-hand turn lane allows some bus routes (remarkably few) to divert to a terminus in the forecourt of the Domain car park, one of the few places in the vicinity of the CBD, apart from Circular Quay and other dead-ends at Walsh Bay, where it is physically possible for buses to turn around.

Domain car park forecourt

Bus-only lane back to William St.

The Deputy Director General of TfNSW, Chris Lock, asserted at public meetings in April, that congestion in George Street north of Market Street caused delays of up to half an hour during the morning peak from 8 to 9 AM. A rational human being would deduce from this that not enough buses were being diverted to the Domain forecourt at this short period of the day, for five days of a week.

The buses that use this terminus are long range routes through Strathfield and Burwood, but with the Oyster (aka Opal) card where a bus route terminates in the CBD is largely irrelevant. Regardless of the destination on the front of the bus that circulates through the local roads, you can get of at any stop in the shared corridor, in this case Parramatta road, and wait for a bus to your preferred destination. If you are smart you will make your move at section boundaries and as far from the CBD as possible - buses to prized destinations will pack to the rafters early on and become set-down only services, leapfrogging stops, an added incentive to change routes early.

The Domain forecourt terminus would be the prized terminus for passengers headed for destinations in the Eastern Suburbs. You disembark in Park Street, walk around the corner and catch a bus to the Eastern Suburbs. The Domain forecourt bus layover can be improved for a fraction of the claimed $1.6 billion that O'Farrell wants from the Federal Government, for a tramway that will have slower journeys to Circular Quay than the existing bus services. Eliminating the only places in the CBD where buses can physically turn around in order to provide a tram service that does not need space to turn around is not rational.

The 9/11 13 brochure states that "approximately every second bus service ... via Broadway will only (sic) operate to Central. The remaining services will continue to the northern end of the city centre". So the elimination of the bus-only right-turn lane by the tramway spells the end to the bus services using the Domain forecourt.

TfNSW has made a preemptive strike. From last May the bus services from Strathfield to the Domain along Riley Street were ended. They still use the forecourt to turn around (it is the only place they can physically turn round) but they layover (wait for their scheduled start) at a stop in Cathedral Street. The first pick-up stop is in George Street.

So will these services be terminated at "Central", i.e. Pitt Street? The 13 Dec brochure stated authoritatively that 33 of the 175 buses entering the CBD via Broadway during the peak hour would be eliminated but TfNSW has refused to say how. Now they are saying approximately 88 buses will be terminated; but this is clearly a back of the beer coaster figure. TfNSW has given up on trying to model bus routes.

TfNSW started negotiations with the companies that package PPPs ( Public Private Partnerships) for the usual kamikaze investors on 21 October, so they must be telling them which bus services will be terminated in Pitt Street, "under commercial privilege". Are they also telling them they will incorporate draconian penalty clauses or legislate to prevent future governments redirecting them? The assumption for investors to swallow is that passengers on terminated bus routes stay on until the end and can be shepherded onto cattle cars. This ain't so with the Oyster card.

The commuters that use the bus services to get to work will not be receiving any notice of their impending fate any time soon - not before the Project is commenced. O'Farrell is adopting the Robin Askin Stratagem -  commence construction so future governments cannot reverse any of the decisions. This failed in the past when Neville Wran cancelled contracts to build the skyway carriageways in Darling Harbour and went on to inspire a new word, Wranslide.