Druitt? Screw it!

Pedestrianised zone George/Druitt Streets, 8:52 am

Pedestrians crossing George Street 5:11 pm

When the project was announced Sydney City Council immediately issued computer-generated artists impressions of trams at the George Street/Druitt Street intersection - they had been forewarned. The simulations showed Druitt Street pedestrianised. These were later withdrawn and we don't know who produced them, TfNSW or SCC.

The 13 December 2012 brochure shrieked: "Most people arrive in the CBD via public transport. This means we can see 370 buses moving along George Street outside Town Hall in the morning's busiest hour - creating congestion". The horror, the horror! In fact we can see any day we look that none of the buses passing through George Street in front of the Town Hall suffer any delays in passing through the intersections. The buses are from a very large number of routes and only buses from Park Street have to wait for a second phase to pass through the intersection at any time of the day.

The phases of the George/Driutt intersection

Phase 1

This is the only phase that fails to clear buses in a single phase. The buses are mainly Metro buses with some from William Street. Congestion in Druitt Street, particularly where buses and other vehicles turn right into Clarence Street, causes traffic to bank up in Park Street - during some phases at the Pitt Street intersection hardly any vehicles make it across Pitt Street during a phase in the morning peak. Vehicles have to give way to merging buses so buses can move along the left-turn lane and merge into the queued vehicles, getting closer to the head of the queue.

TfNSW asserts that the trams will perform the same function as metrobus services from Coogee and Maroubra Junction but this is another lie. The purpose of the metrobus services was to avoid the need for layovers and terminuses in the CBD giving fast access to the centre of the CBD. The trams are the antithesis of the Metro bus services.

Metrobus goes to the head of the queue in Park Street

Phase 2

Phase 2 only takes place if a bus has passed over the metal-sensing loop in either or both bus-only right-turn lanes.  If not, the northbound and southbound traffic movements in George Street begin immediately after the Park Street phases. This phase is timed according to demand and in general lasts as long as there are buses passing over the loops. The buses turning into Druitt Street are mainly headed for Victoria Road after physically turning around at Circular Quay.

Phase 3

Phase 3 feeds buses and general traffic into Clarence Street via Druitt Street as well as carrying buses heading north to physically turn around at Circular Quay. Northbound buses use the second lane from the kerb which is marked left-turn-buses-excepted, or they can use the third general-traffic lane which does not carry many private vehicles apart from taxis.

Private vehicles do not seriously impede the movement of buses at any time of the day except for congestion in Druitt Street where vehicles turn right into Clarence Street. Two of the five phases feed traffic from George Street into Clarence Street.

Phase 4

Pedestrians have learned that this phase does not give enough time to cross between the Woolworths corner and the Queen Victoria Building using the marked crossings so they cross diagonally as you can see in the photos above above - a yellow Hillsbus leads the queue waiting for the phase to end. Buses and other vehicles from the car park under York Street and further north turn from York Street into Druit Street westbound during this phase. The timing does vary slightly during the day but is a bit more than 36 seconds.

Phase 5

Phase 5 is the other phase that carries buses and other traffic from George Street into Clarence Street and southbound from York Street into George Street. The timing would be based on the number of buses queued from York Street but is short and pretty constant through the day - 20 seconds in the morning peak and around 17 seconds for the rest of the day.

Pedestrianisation of George Street

Pedestrianisation of this crucial section of George Street displaces traffic that moves into Clarence Street and northbound past Park Street in parallel with bus movements into Pitt Street. Traffic that currently causes minimal disruption to bus movements now has to cross the dual tram tracks twice. Once at Eddy Avenue, which sets up trams to be run down at the Rawson Place stop, and then after vehicles join the traffic queued in Park Street to cross into Druitt Street. This traffic movement can not be blocked as it crosses Eddy avenue in parallel with every bus from Parramatta Road and City Road and it determines the maximum frequency with which trams can be dispatched from Circular Quay.

The sixth phase 

Buses queue to make a U-turn into Clarence Street, Monday 8:17 am

Currently buses heading north to the bus stop at QVB and then to physically turn round at Circular Quay and the small number of vehicles with expensive parking spaces along George Street move in parallel with traffic turning into Druitt Street in phase 3. Currently every phase of the traffic lights delivers buses and other traffic into Druitt Street westbound. Trams with the exclusive right to travel along George Street shut down every traffic movement apart from pedestrians crossing Park Street in parallel with the trams and buses and other vehicles turning right into Druitt Street from York Street: they require their own additional phase.

York into Druitt Street, Sunday 5:15 pm
Buses making a U-turn muscle into the general vehicle lane in York Street

"Proposed bus network" Dec 2012

The trams block buses sent south past Wynyard park along York Street from reaching the Lee Street layover forcing them to make a U-turn across the single eastbound lane of Druitt Street and back across this lane into Clarence Street. Three buses from Victoria Road held up at the Druitt Street pedestrian crossing would block this U-turn so this phase can not cut in randomly into the signals phasing at George Street to give 67-metre-long trams priority when inching between the Town Hall and QVB tram stops.

The front of the 67-metre trams will be only half a tram length from the Park Street pedestrian crossing in front of Town Hall leaving little time for the lights to change if a driver were to signal he was moving off - I have no idea how priority signalling would be implemented. When the tram is waiting at the crossing for the lights to change the rear carriage of the tram will not have left the Town Hall stop!

Town Hall stop falls just short of actually being in front of Town Hall

There can be no bus stops in the eastbound lane of Druitt Street so Victoria Road buses sent on to terminate God knows where in the Eastern Suburbs (i.e. Edgecliff station) will be crammed when they reach the Park Street intersection. On the other hand, trams will be running on empty to Circular Quay. So we have established that trams will not have priority at the Park/Druitt Streets intersection, right? So the phasing of the lights adds to the cumulative delays that determine whether a tram that gets a clear run at intersections crashes into a tram that misses every light, at the Rawson Place stop or indeed the Chalmers Street stop. This determines the frequency with which the trams can safely be dispatched from the Circular Quay terminus and the maximum capacity that the system can ever achieve.

I have observed the operation of the signalling at the Druitt/George Streets intersection on different days of the week from Monday to Sunday and at times from 7am to after 7pm. Effectively it was the U-turn movement from Druitt Street into Clarence Street that was responsible for congestion that at times banked up to George Street. The Park Street into Druitt Street phase that follows was blocked causing buses on occasions to block northbound movements in George Street and causing vehicles to come to a virtual halt in Park Street in the am peak. The trams make it impossible to ever relieve this congestion - it gets progressively worse for the rest of the life of the City. Baird is not only creating intractable congestion in Elizabeth Street he is creating intractable congestion in Druitt Street.

The mega phase

All the traffic that currently passes through the intersection in five phases will be consolidated into a single phase. This mega phase is basically the same as phase 1 with a couple of exceptions:

• Victoria Road buses do not turn into George Street but cross the tram tracks on their way to God knows where;
• Buses and other vehicles do not turn into George Street southbound;
• Pedestrians are forced to cross the tram tracks in a separate phase to crossing Park Street.

Motorists are not bicyclists. They are not treating the CBD as an adventure park or trying to save the planet by inflicting as much damage as possible on anyone who has qualified for a driver's licence or is productively employed. All the vehicles currently passing through the intersection have a reason to be there and that reason will not go away. Unfortunately the phase 1 was the only phase in the morning peak to become congested to the point where almost no vehicle movement was occurring. This is understandable as vehicles must move into Druitt Street in two lanes only. Every vehicle currently using the intersection will be forced to join the two-lane queue and every vehicle will pass through the Druitt Street/Clarence Street intersection.

 
Bus stop Druitt between Clarence and Kent

The lights at the George/Park Street intersection are demand based - using data from the metal-sensing loops - so the timing reflects the minimum time needed to clear the traffic passing through the intersection. Pedestrian movements across the tram tracks take place in parallel with vehicle movements so one can subtract 36 seconds from the time required to clear the intersection.

TfNSW has not disclosed how many Harbour Bridge services will be sent south past Wynyard park or how many Victoria Road bus services will be sent north to terminate at Wynyard park so no estimate can be made of how long phase 6 would last. TfNSW can manipulate the figures to satisfy itself that congestion would be manageable in 2021 - effectively transferring congestion to Wynyard, whatever the consequences. All Victoria Road bus services must pass through the Druitt/Clarence Streets intersection inbound and outbound so TfNSW is just manipulating the figures. Since a 36-second phase comprehensively clogs Druitt Street between York and Clarence Streets we can see this as an upper limit.

When there are no buses waiting to transfer from York Street to George Street phase 5 is omitted reducing the overall time of the traffic light cycle and when northbound lanes were blocked by a bus the cycle was extended confirming that the lights are controlled by signals from the loops in the road. Victoria Road buses have privileged entry to Druitt Street from the bus-only right turn. There are five lanes feeding traffic into Druitt Street during four phases. During the morning from 7-9 am and in the evening from 4-7 pm these phases add up to between 1 minute:12.5 seconds and 1 minute:19 seconds. It is inconceivable that it would take less time when all this traffic is forced into two lanes in Park Street.

This does not take into account the extra bus services that TfNSW will be forcing into the Druitt/Clarence intersection. New South Head Road bus services will be prevented from turning into Elizabeth Street and forced to physically turn round, God knows how, somewhere in Walsh Bay. All bus services to Barangaroo and the Hungry Mile will circle Wynyard park or do a U-turn in Druitt Street - there must always be separate services to these destinations. As with Victoria Road bus services TfNSW given itself the ability to manipulate the figures.

Frequency of tram services

We must add the maximum delay for the trams at the Park/Druitt Streets intersection to the delays expected at Bathurst, Liverpool and Goulburn Streets. The placement of the stops ensures that all these delays are cumulative. The cumulative delays at these intersections are a minimum of 4 minutes:49 seconds. This does not take into account any extra delays caused by vehicles failing to clear the tracks because of congestion in Druitt Street.

Then we have to add in delays at the Market Street, King Street and Hunter Street intersections which are more difficult to estimate.

Ms Berejiklian has lied about the frequency that tram services can ever achieve for more than two years now. Her latest claims are announced in her ridiculous media release (23 November 2014). Her public servants are now quoting her: "Gladys Berejiklian announced light rail would have 50% more capacity than the 9,000 passengers per hour previously announced". They do not want to be associated with her.

The latest indicative figure for the Rawson Place stop from Parsons Brinckerhoff appears to have been deliberately designed to conceal the pincer movement of death. The elimination of a crossing of the tram tracks at Ultimo Road transfers more traffic to Bathurst Street and to the single lane of George Street southbound. This will ensure that trams will be approaching the Rawson Place stop at their maximum speed.

Using existing traffic flows through intersections the frequencies with which trams can be dispatched from Circular Quay claimed by TfNSW cannot be achieved from day one. The claims about the frequencies of the trams that could be achieved in 2031 are delusional.

TfNSW has never revealed the assumptions it made in making calculations of Level of Service at intersections and has no intention of allowing an independent assessment to be made. The Business Case Summary confirmed that some of the assumptions are bizarre: "The light rail is also forecast to attract a significant number of car users (17 per cent of passengers)".
"The majority of the economic benefits ($2.2 billion, or 57%) result from public transport benefits related to faster, more comfortable, more reliable journeys".

In my submission to the EIS I pleaded with Planning and Environment to ascertain the maximum number of cars that could conceivably switch from driving from the catchment areas to park in very expensive off-street parking adjacent to George Street by doing a simple origin/destination survey - to no avail. The consequences of not doing such a survey are so catastrophic it was not much to ask.

Slaughter of the innocents

Martin Place tribute

The media reported that one of the officers that stormed the Lindt cafe had suffered shotgun pellets to the face. It turned out that his cheek had been grazed by a bullet - friendly fire. Only his cheek could have been grazed he was wearing Kevlar from head to toe and goggles. The people in the cafe had no protection - it was like shooting goldfish in a barrel.

The event in Martin Place was irrational and could not have been foreseen, although it could have turned out differently. Sydney faces far greater tragedies in Rawson Place. These catastrophes are predictable and would be inevitable if Ms Berejiklian were to force Connecting Sydney into an "availablity PPP" that required the consortium to maintain tram frequencies in George Street based on indisputably erroneous calculations, regardless of the consequences.

If the contract agreed to pay the consortium an assured amount if it did maintain these schedules, regardless of the patronage - which appears to be how these contracts work - then, not only would public transport in the CBD be crippled physically by the trams, public transport throughout the State would be crippled financially for the foreseeable future.

Only a Royal Commission into "availability PPPs" can uncover what is going on in these negotiations. A tragedy in Rawson Place is both predictable and avoidable. If Baird is sent packing on 28 March 2015 it will never occur.